THE global oil market woke up to one of its most serious disruption threats in years over the weekend — and Malaysian drivers are right to be watching closely.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, who also serves as Finance Minister, has pledged that the government will do everything within its power to maintain the RON95 subsidised petrol price at RM1.99 per litre for Malaysians, even as escalating conflict in the Middle East sends crude oil prices sharply higher.
Speaking to reporters after a Ramadan iftar gathering with community leaders at Seri Perdana Complex in Putrajaya on Sunday, Anwar acknowledged the very real pressure now bearing down on global energy markets.
“Insya-Allah, for the sake of Malaysians I will try to ensure there is no increase in fuel prices. We will hold on for as long as we can — but wallahualam, this market is not within our control. If the situation goes beyond our control, we cannot guarantee what may happen.”
What Has Actually Happened in the Middle East
The anxiety gripping global markets stems from a dramatic escalation of conflict in the region. On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran, targeting several ministries in Tehran as well as other strategic sites. President Donald Trump described the campaign as “major combat operations” and warned it would be “massive and ongoing.”
Iran’s retaliation has been swift and broad — launching missile strikes against US military bases in Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and Bahrain, and retaliating against Israeli and American assets across multiple Middle Eastern countries.
The most alarming development for energy markets, however, is what is happening at the Strait of Hormuz.
Why the Strait of Hormuz Changes Everything
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s single most important oil chokepoint — a narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf through which approximately 20 percent of global oil supply passes every day. That translates to roughly 20 million barrels of crude oil and oil products daily, flowing from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Iran to energy-hungry markets in Asia, Europe and beyond.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been broadcasting marine radio warnings instructing vessels in the area that “no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz.” While Iran has never fully closed the waterway before, the warnings alone have been enough to send shockwaves through global shipping. At least 150 tankers — crude oil and LNG vessels — have dropped anchor in open Gulf waters beyond the Strait, while several major oil companies and trading houses have already suspended crude shipments through the route.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) has confirmed awareness of “significant military activity” in the Strait, including a reported incident near Oman’s Kumzar.
What This Means for Oil Prices
Markets were already pricing in geopolitical risk before the strikes. By Friday close, Brent crude had settled at US$72.87 per barrel (+2.87%) while WTI stood at US$67.02 per barrel (+2.78%). Those numbers are expected to jump significantly when markets reopen Monday.
Energy intelligence firm Rystad Energy has warned that Brent could surge by as much as US$20 per barrel on Monday if no clear signs of de-escalation emerge over the weekend. Analysts at Vanda Insights project prices could hit US$80 per barrel if the conflict continues through Monday in a knee-jerk reaction. In a worst-case scenario — a prolonged Strait closure — analysts at Rapidan Energy Group say oil prices could push toward US$100 per barrel.
“Closure of the Strait of Hormuz would disrupt roughly a fifth of globally traded oil overnight — and prices wouldn’t just spike, they would gap violently upward on fear alone,” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.
On Sunday, OPEC+ moved to cushion the blow, raising its collective production quota by 220,000 barrels per day — higher than the 137,000 bpd adjustment that had been expected — in an attempt to signal additional supply capacity to nervous markets.
What It Means for Malaysian Drivers
Malaysia is not insulated from what happens at the Strait of Hormuz. The country is a net oil exporter, but it is also deeply integrated into global energy trade flows. A sustained spike in crude prices puts immediate pressure on the government’s ability to maintain fuel subsidies — which is precisely what Anwar was addressing on Sunday.
The BUDI95 programme currently caps RON95 petrol at RM1.99 per litre for eligible Malaysian consumers through a targeted subsidy mechanism. The unsubsidised market price for RON95 has already climbed — and with crude benchmarks potentially heading significantly higher this week, the fiscal cost of maintaining that RM1.99 ceiling will rise sharply with it.
For now, the Prime Minister’s message is one of cautious commitment: the government will defend the price for as long as it can, but global commodity markets — particularly one facing a potential disruption to a fifth of the world’s daily oil supply — operate beyond any single government’s control.
Malaysian consumers and the automotive industry will be watching very closely when markets open Monday morning.
Source: SinarHarian / Bernama
